With the Democratic Party identifying much more unreservedly than even 10 or 20 years ago with the demands for change, and Trump so clearly stamping the GOP in opposition to all of them, the grinding trench warfare between these competing coalitions in the 2020 race probably only previews the struggle looming through the 2020s. Not that I can be an artist of that magnitude. The past four times a president went into a midterm election with unified control of government, most recently Trump in 2018, voters revoked it. But he could still squeeze out another Electoral College victory without it. Hillary Clinton won 87 of the nation’s 100 largest counties by a combined margin of nearly 15 million votes, according to calculations by the Pew Research Center, but Trump won over 2,400 of the remaining 3,000 counties and a higher total number of counties than any other nominee in either party had captured since Ronald Reagan’s blowout in 1984. The 2020 presidential election remains very much up for grabs, but one thing already seems clear: It will end with about half of America triumphant, and the other half furious and fearful. [3] In 1989, he left the National Journal to work full-time as national correspondent for the Los Angeles Times. We want to hear what you think about this article. Pastor isn't alone when he grimly predicts, "We're really getting ready for a very deep culture war coming.

Ronald Brownstein. Trump's message collides with diversifying suburbs, Why Trump can't make the election about Biden, How the coronavirus is shaping health care politics in 2020, Trump could sink the House GOP in suburbia, The white-collar revolt against Trump is peaking, The Black Lives Matter protests preview the politics of a diversifying America, California forges a path through America's racial divide, The partisan chasm over 'systemic racism' is on full display, Live or virtual conventions? Robert P. Jones, founder and CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, Trump's approval ratings and support in the presidential race against Democratic nominee, The durability of both support and opposition to Trump shows how the motivation for voters' choices is shifting from transitory measures of performance, such as the traditional metrics of peace and prosperity, toward bedrock attitudes about demographic, cultural and economic change. Updated 6:41 AM ET, Tue September 15, 2020. Do you remember what piece of pop culture influenced you the most at that age? Ronald J. Brownstein (born April 6, 1958) is an American journalist, political correspondent, and analyst. Amid such closely balanced contending forces, both parties live in constant fear that even the tiniest of blunders will lead to victory for the other.

I'm pretty sure it was Dennis Elsas, who is still on SiriusXM.

The two of them were just such unbelievable achievements. I have this book coming out early next year [Rock Me on the Water], which is a history of L.A. culture and politics in the early 1970s. But that is a foundational piece of their self-understanding.

How does this seasoned analyst assess the U.S. political landscape in the 10th presidential election he has covered? Republicans believe that the strong economy and Trump’s swaggering style will lead them to make small gains with Hispanic and African American men, suppress any defections from the working-class white women who backed him in 2016, and prompt greater turnout among the party’s base. And for some people it's enthralling.". (That was up from just one-fourth of Americans living in such landslide counties in 1976 and half as recently as 2012.) Particularly White Christian folks really did think they were the country. Democrats hope that revulsion at Trump’s behavior will help them make gains with traditionally Republican-leaning blue-collar white women and college-educated white men, and further boost their margins with college-educated white women, who have left the GOP in droves. Anxiety, Defiance, and Refuge in Immigrant Los Angeles. Ronald Brownstein. It's much easier to compromise on what should the marginal tax rate be, or what's a reasonable date for net-zero carbon emissions, but people generally don't want to compromise on issues related to how much work you should do to ... make sure that racial minorities or women are treated equally. In this Feb. 26, 1980, file photo, Republican presidential hopeful Ronald Reagan and wife Nancy do some last-minute campaigning in Manchester for New Hampshire's presidential primary. With.

"Particularly White Christian folks really did think they were the country," he says. Because identity politics has become so clearly overlapping with partisan politics, it makes those divisions all the more heated and uncompromising. TheAtlantic.com Copyright (c) 2020 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. [4] In 1979, he graduated with a B.A. And I have to say that Master of the Senate [volume three] is probably even better than The Power Broker. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us.

What piece of local history there resonates the most with you? Increasingly, campaign strategists and political scientists agree, voters are choosing between the parties more on their views about fundamental demographic and cultural change than on their immediate financial circumstances or even their views of economic policies, such as taxes, spending and regulation. Watch the presidential race, This is Biden's shortest path to the White House, How 2020 may reconfigure politics in the Southwest, Why the Southeast is up for grabs in the 2020 election, Joe Biden implores Americans to wear a mask: 'Be patriotic', CNN's Abby Phillip says the White House reaction to COVID-19 positive cases within its ranks is a 'case study in what not to do', How conservative Catholics became supreme on GOP's court. [4] His father was an electrician. [3] In 1989, he left the National Journal to work full-time as national correspondent for the Los Angeles Times.

Partisan allegiances grounded in these fundamental measures of personal and national identity -- such as whether the nation must do more to assure equal opportunity for people of color and women -- appear highly resistant to reconsideration based on immediate events. Born to Run was just such a monumental achievement. Link Copied. He has governed almost entirely as the president of red America, excoriating his political opponents while wielding the power of the federal government to punish blue America. Brendan Smialowski / AFP. The Arts Don’t Need New Audiences. State University of New York at Binghamton: Occupation: Journalist Political correspondent Analyst: Spouse(s) Nina Easton (divorced) Eileen Nicole McMenamin (m. 2005) … Because all of the key swing states lean slightly more Republican than the nation overall, even a slight improvement for Trump might put him in position. Link Copied.

It was just so powerful. But such a decisive turn no longer appears possible, Murphy says. His first wife was Nina Easton; they had two children before divorcing. The country is deeply divided between two equally matched coalitions: Neither side has been able to establish a durable advantage over the other for the past half century. [4], State University of New York at Binghamton, State University of New York - Binghamton, "Ronald Brownstein on America's political and electoral fault lines", "Ronald Brownstein Transcript - Conversations with Bill Kristol", "Ron Brownstein - Senior Political Analyst", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ron_Brownstein&oldid=983850545, Wikipedia articles with WORLDCATID identifiers, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 16 October 2020, at 16:34.

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